Dear Friends,
David Binder Research conducted a survey of likely June 2026 California primary voters, and results indicate that the race for California Lieutenant Governor is wide open, defined by low name recognition for all candidates and a large share of undecided voters. Josh Fryday demonstrates significant growth potential, gaining more than any other candidate after bios are presented and moving into a statistical tie with Fiona Ma and Michael Tubbs after voters hear equal amounts of information about these candidates.
Statistical Tie After Balanced Information
After voters hear balanced positive and negative information about the major Democratic candidates, Josh Fryday and Fiona Ma are tied among non-Republican voters at 14% each, with Michael Tubbs at 11%. (Fryday and Ma are also tied among all voters at 10% each, with Tubbs at 8%.)
Low Name Recognition and High Fluidity
As is common in races for down-ballot constitutional offices, this race is currently defined by low name recognition for all candidates. While Fiona Ma has the highest name recognition and an initial lead among Democratic candidates, 8 in 10 voters have no opinion of her. Name recognition is also currently low for Josh Fryday and Michael Tubbs, with around 9 in 10 having no opinion of either.
In an initial measure of support, Republican David Fennell leads with 18%, while 16% support Fiona Ma, 11% support Gloria Romero, 4% support Michael Tubbs, and 2% support Josh Fryday. Half of voters are either undecided or choose other candidates. This initial vote reflects low voter information about the race, and the shape of the race changes substantially after voters get basic information about the candidates.
Fryday Gains Most After Voters Hear Candidate Bios
Voters taking this survey were provided with brief biographical messages about the candidates. Fryday gets an immediate and substantial boost from his bio: a 7-point increase in support, the largest gain among any Democratic candidate. In contrast, Fiona Ma loses 1 point of support after voters hear candidate bio.
The movement after information demonstrates fluidity in this race, with no candidate currently holding a firm lead. It also shows Fryday’s potential to advance to the general election as the top Democrat in the primary.
Fryday’s Strengths: Military Service and Fighting for Californians
Survey respondents heard several positive statements about Fryday, including information about his background and what he would do as Lieutenant Governor. When asked reasons for supporting Fryday, top responses among target voters are that he has fought to protect people, the environment, and the rule of law his whole career, and because he’s a new generation of Democrat who isn’t afraid to fight for what he believes in.
The Path Forward
This race will be decided by which candidate can most effectively communicate their message and qualifications to voters. Josh Fryday has the biography, the message, and the momentum to win.
We hope you’ll join us in this fight.
Best regards,
David Binder